ZK Prediction: $10 billion market for zero-knowledge proving by 2030 (part 3)

An analysis indicates that the zero-knowledge proof market is likely to generate $10.2 billion of revenue in 2030 — that’s 87 billion zero-knowledge proofs completed at $0.12 each. Key factors to be followed as this market develops include the emergence of the use of increasingly complex zero-knowledge proof mathematics, the ability to scale zero-knowledge proofs within block transactions, and especially the growth of zero-knowledge proving beyond the Ethereum blockchain. Predicting a zero-knowledge proof market worth more than $10 billion in 2030 is likely still conservative.

There are several issues to consider as this analysis adapted for a particular implementation or business instance, and will need to be addressed at the micro (protocol / business) and macro (Dapps / industry) level:

• There are many kinds of zK proofs and a host of different implementations. What are the implications for infrastructure based on the approach, business requirement, etc.?
• What are the limitations of current hardware to support zK proving, especially given the high cost and design restrictions of the latest generation of GPUs?
• What is the impact of variable / bursty demand on infrastructure demand / costs, and what will be the implications for network pricing and performance for end users?
• Initially many of the provers will be provided by the zK based chains themselves. How can / will the proving market evolve to enable efficient, decentralized provisioning of proofs.

In summary, Web3 services alone will require almost 90 billion zero-knowledge proofs to be performed in the year 2030. This would deliver 83 thousand transactions per second. It’s projected the market for generating zero-knowledge proofs will reach $10 billion in 2030.