ZK Prediction: 87 billion zero-knowledge proofs by 2030 (part 1)

Ethereum L1 has been designed for maximum decentralization and security at the expense of scaling. As a result, the execution environment where users will experience cheap, fast transactions would consist of Layer 2 solutions — namely Zero-knowledge proof Rollups that are compatible with Ethereum — many of which are being launched on mainnet in 2023. In this thought piece, an independent research derives a potential market size for zK proof by assuming that Ethereum is used significantly by zkEVMs and zKVMs, and then looked at the potential for other L1 chains to settle transactions.

• Ethereum as the cornerstone of the analysis: The analysis assumes that many L2 rollups — blockchain scaling protocols — will choose the Ethereum network to settle zk proofs, given the blockchain’s security, transparency, and immutability.
• zK transactions per Ethereum block: The target gas limit for each Ethereum block is 15 million Gwei — Ethereum’s gas unit — with each zK-proof transaction using about 500,000 Gwei. Each Ethereum block currently can support an average of 30 ZKP transactions.
• zK proofs generated per year on Ethereum: At a potential of 30 proofs per zK block, 7,200 blocks per day could mean a maximum potential of 216,000 ZKPs settled on Ethereum L1 per day, or 78.8mm ZKPs per year. As the industry ramps up, we see 25% of the Ethereum block space being used by zK proofs in 2024, growing to 90% by the year 2030. Layer-2 scaling protocols will be able to acquire space on the Ethereum blockchain because they can divide the gas fee among many zK proofs and transactions.
• Scaling zK proofs per block: Each zK transaction in an Ethereum block has the potential over time to be a rollup of multiple ZKPs. Additionally, the number of proofs per zK can potentially be expanded as new approaches and protocols are developed (some of which may result from adjustments to the Ethereum protocol itself). The analysis assumes that initially 15 ZKPs would be settled per zK block settled at L1, growing to 810 ZKPs by 2027.
• Other non-Ethereum L1 chains: The analysis assumes that many L2 rollups — blockchain scaling protocols — will choose the Ethereum network to record zK proofs, however other L1 zK native chains are being launched as well. This model assumes that 90% of zK proving will take place on Ethereum in 2024 for the reasons discussed above, dropping to 66% by 2030.

The analysis projects that 87 billion zero-knowledge proofs will be conducted to support Web3 applications in 2030, which would encompass 2.6 trillion transactions — about 83 thousand transactions per second.

For comparison, the Visa network has processed up to 65,000 transactions per second, and the Alipay network has processed over 250,000 transactions per second[1]. When you consider that this projection does not include off-chain zK proofs for commercial applications in finance, health care, etc., this can be seen as a conservative projection for the market size for zK proving.